When Two Giants Collide: A Fight Prediction

Tyson Fury V Deontay Wilder II

The fight has been signed, Deontay Wilder will defend his title again against Tyson Fury on February 22nd at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. This is a joint promotion between Fox/Premier Champions and ESPN/Top Rank. 

Making a prediction this far out from the fight can leave me on extremely shaky ground. I don't gamble on boxing. I've only once gambled...and lost. That was in 1990. I won't tell you the fight, but one of my heroes lost badly that night. 

Based on their first fight, choosing a winner for Tyson Fury V Deontay Wilder is a two-way pick. If I asked you to stop and make a choice now, I'd expect you to say either Wilder knocks Fury cold or Tyson fiddles his way to a points decision. Am I right? 

Background: 

Tyson Fury: Let’s start our decision making by looking at the first fight. Tyson Fury had come off a long enforced layoff. Fury had just beaten aging but Hall of Fame Champion in Wladimir Klitschko. The fight was billed as “Kollisionskurs” which is German for "Collision Course.”  The fight was held on November 28, 2015, at Esprit Arena, Düsseldorf, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany.

Wladimir had been a world champion for nearly 10 years. Holding a title for 10 years is almost unheard of in the sport, only the legendary Joe Louis has a longer reign of 12 years.  In his two reigns as champion Wladimir beat 23 different opponents, Louis managed to beat 22.

Tyson Fury traveling to Germany and beating such an icon is the stuff of legend. Admittedly Klitcko was 39 years old, he was not at his peak, yet he was not far removed from it. Tyson was 27 years old and rolled into town full of bluster, as only a confident and young challenger can generate.

Tyson’s out of the ring tactics and in the ring swagger seemed to throw this legendary champion off his game and as such fiddled his way to a unanimous decision. Two judges scored the bout 115–112, while the other scored it 116–111, all in favor of Fury. Tyson tends to not muscle his way to a decision, he chooses to use his height and length together with his speed and awkwardness to earn decisions. Many of the rounds were close, yet there was no controversy. Tyson deserved the win in a country where it is often hard to come away with a win.

It was at this point that Tyson Fury began to unravel as a man. Initially, Wladimir exercised his right to a rematch. Negotiations began to take place, yet Tyson was proving erratic to deal with. Originally the rematch was to take place at Manchester Arena on 9 July 2016. Sadly on the 24th of June 2016, Tyson Fury announced that he had injured his ankle and the fight needed to be rescheduled.

The rematch was again scheduled for the 29th of October 2016, again at the Manchester Arena, England. Yet, once again with a few weeks to go, Tyson Fury backed out and he was declared ‘medically unfit.’

On the 12th of October 2016, Tyson Fury vacated his WBA, WBO, and IBO titles (the IBF title had already been stripped from Fury). Tyson claimed to be suffering from depression. It should be noted that Fury had also been tested positive for cocaine use. The World titles were then fought for by other fighters, one of those was Anthony Joshua.

It was at this point Tyson Fury spiraled out of control. Fury claimed to be a manic depressive and suffering from a form of bipolar. He stated that he didn’t want to wake up in the mornings.’ Initially, I wondered if he was suffering from a form of Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE)? This left Tyson unable to fight based both on medical grounds and because of doping violations. During this time Tyson gained an incredible 10 stone. He ballooned to 392lb.

Eventually, Tyson began to make the right sounds, he was training again and had begun shifting much of the 10 stones (140lbs). He wanted to fight again. I didn’t see how a man that had reached the pinnacle in our sport, then had sunk into depression together with drink and drug abuse, could make a serious comeback.

On June 9th, 2018, at the Manchester Arena (England), Tyson Fury stepped into the ring against  Sefer Seferi,  a 39-year-old Albanian cruiserweight. This wasn’t a dangerous assignment, yet this was the correct level of opponent. Tyson Fury had been out of the ring a significant period and had come back from the pits of despair. This was the perfect opponent. When I say a perfect opponent, I mean the right level of a fighter if Tyson was going to take his time getting to the top again. Tyson stopped Seferi with ease in the 4th round. 

Next on the menu was the former two-time world title challenger Francesco Pianeta.  Pianeta had seen better days and was not world-class anymore. This again was perfect for Tyson to ever so slowly build his fitness, ringcraft, and confidence again. The fight happened on August 18th, 2018, Windsor Park, Belfast, Northern Ireland. Tyson came in 18lbs lighter than he was for the Sefer Seferi fight. Fury boxed conservatively, at no point did he really seek to step things up and stop Pianeta. Tyson won easily over ten rounds.

I expected Tyson Fury to continue boxing more and more mid-level opponents and in doing so ever so slowly work his way to the world title. Shockingly Tyson Fury signed to fight the most explosive fighter in world heavyweight boxing history. Tyson was to fight Deontay Wilder on December 1st, 2018 at the Staples Arena, Los Angeles, California. I was amazed that Fury would be willing to fight such a dangerous fighter at the infancy stage of his comeback.

Deontay Wilder: In the history of world heavyweight boxing I have never seen a heavyweight punch like Deontay Wilder. You may wish to dispute my bold claim, yet I’m standing firm on this decision. Sure, George Foreman was a murderous puncher, yet his punches were slow, awkward and thudding. Can George hit hard? YES, HE CAN. Just ask the 68 people he knocked clean. He even lifted Joe Frazier off the canvas with a punch. Mike Tyson is another thunderous puncher, his punches were sharp and explosive, he terrified the heavyweight division with his power. Lennox Lewis outsized many of his opponents and his straight right hand left most unconscious. There are many others we could put on this list of huge punchers (Joe Louis, Ron Lyle, Jerry Quarry, Rocky Marciano, Joe Frazier, Frank Bruno, etc). I contend these scary punchers can put any man to sleep, yet they still do not possess the fight-ending one punch explosive power of Deontay Wilder. Deontay hits you with single shots and you drop like you’ve been shot. The only heavyweight close to Wilder is Earnie Shavers. Earnie also had fight-ending power with single shots, yet unlike Wilder, his power diminished significantly the further the fights went. I agree, Earnie’s career is stacked with boxing ‘Greats’, compared to Wilder’s fight resume. Yet, I still claim Wilder’s power holds-up over Shavers’. 

Deontay Wilder came later to boxing. Like George Foreman; Wilder had a brief amateur career. Both men somehow went to the Olympics. George won Gold at the 1968 Olympics and Wilder won Bronze at the 2008 Olympics. Considering his lack of experience, to gain a Bronze Medal is incredible.

Early on in his professional career, Deontay needed easy touches. Wilder was criticized heavily for the lack of quality in his first 30+ fights. I contest this slightly. Unlike modern fighters, I encourage boxers to fight frequently on the undercard of other fighters’ bills. I do not see the need to rush fighters to championship level fights. Maybe, I’m alone in this belief?

I’d been hearing about Deontay Wilder long before I saw him smash decent fighter, Owen Beck. This made me stand up and take notice of Deontay. He looked so skinny, undersized and awkward, yet the power was something I’d never seen before.

Eventually, Wilder came to England and took on former Olympic Champion Audley Harrison. Wilder looked just like his name, he was wild and seemed too uncoordinated. Yet he absolutely smashed Harrison to defeat with ease.

I still wasn’t sold on Deontay Wilder, he looked scared and fragile in the ring. He was way undersized by many of his opponents. Even when Wilder smashed quality opponent, Malik Scott, in a round. I still wasn’t sold.

It was not until Deontay was thrust into a WBC World Title Fight with the tough Bermane Stiverne he could satisfy a few queries from me. This was his first true acid test. I had a mental checklist that I needed Wilder to pass before I rated him, my criteria included:

1. Can Deontay take a solid punch? Check, passed.

2. Does Deontay's power translate to world-class heavyweights? Check, passed.

3. Lean fighters often lack stamina. Does Deontay have the endurance to fight a full 12 rounds? Check, passed.

4. Does Deontay have the skillset to beat a quality opponent on points? Check, passed.

5. Does Deontay have ring generalship? Check, passed.

The only area where Deyontay lacks success is the ability to sell tickets. This lack of recognition baffles me. Wilder is a fantastic talker, he’s charismatic, he’s skillful (yes he is, in an awkward way), he’s good looking, he’s athletic, he has edge of the seat excitement, and he has so much swagger. Yet, Deontay is not yet loved in North America.

Deontay Wilder next went on a run of spectacular title defenses, his knockouts of Artur Szpilka,  Chris Arreola, Bermane Stiverne (rematch), Luis Ortiz, ect. impressed me greatly.

Deontay Wilder V Tyson Fury I: Saturday, December 1st, 2018: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California, US

The first fight between Wilder and Fury became an instant classic. The action wasn’t immense, the skill level wasn’t like Sugar Ray Leonard V Thomas Hearns, yet it was edge of your seat excitement. You couldn’t leave your seat for a bathroom break and be confident the fight was not over in the meanwhile.

Initially, I thought it would be a matter of time before Deontay Wilder found the chin of the loose-limbed former champion, Tyson Fury. I didn’t feel Fury had had enough ring time to be able to compete with the beast that is Deontay Wilder. I was completely wrong. From the start, Deontay Wilder began stalking the faster and more mobile Tyson Fury.

Tyson taunted the dangerous, thunderous punching Wilder. The punches Wilder threw seemed to be missing the chin of Fury by millimeters and when he did land, Fury was able to take the sting out of the punch. Tyson made Wilder look clumsy and ponderous at times. Fury seemed to be playing with Deontay. I was scoring the fight (not officially) and had Tyson Fury stealing the rounds, yet I knew it would only take one shot from Wilder to negate all the skills and effort Tyson was putting in.

In round 9, Wilder finally dropped Fury. At this point, I thought Jack Reiss needed to stay close to Fury so that he could save him from an embarrassingly spectacular loss. Surprisingly, Tyson soon found his rhythm again and began peppering Deontay.

Round 12 must be one of the most incredible rounds in boxing history. Obviously, before the 1960s, many of the world title fights and world champions were not recorded on a regular basis. Yet, for Deontay Wilder to drop Tyson Fury in such the manner he did and for Tyson to be able to be the count of referee Jack Reiss is the stuff of legend.  Not only did Tyson achieve the impossibility of rising from being knocked cold, but he also ended the round dominating and hurting Deyontay Wilder.

Who do I believe won? I stand firm, that in my humble opinion Tyson Fury won the fight. He also deserved the fight. I am glad that he wasn’t robbed completely, yet I feel the draw was not adequate enough praise for the display Tyson Fury put on.

The Rematch:

Thank you for remaining with me as I have been setting the scene. I’m now going to attempt to make a big fight prediction.

Since the first fight, Tyson Fury has thankfully acknowledged he needed more warm-up fights before he was ready again to fight for the title. I was also impressed with the way Tyson publically handed not being given the decision he truly deserved.

Both men have had two fights since their initial bout. Tyson has based both fights in America, thus giving him more experience of boxing abroad. Based on his fights with Klitschko (Germany) and Wilder (America), Tyson Fury travels well. This isn’t always the case for fighters boxing abroad. This means different food, different climate, different time zones, different living quarters, different training facilities, and you are victim to tricks the home fighters’ people can inflict on you.

In his fights, Tyson cruised through his fight with Tom Schwarz (KO Round 2) and struggled with moderate opponent Otto Wallin (unanimous decision - 12 rounds). In the Wallin fight Tyson didn’t seem up for the fight, he labored around the ring and was hit too often. Tyson also struggled with a hideous cut ( 50 stitches). I wonder if the cut will be healed enough for the rematch? It was good for Tyson Fury to struggle with Wallin and positive to go through 12 awkward rounds. This is excellent preparation for a world title fight, the extent of the cut is not.

Now that Tyson Fury has a new trainer in his corner, is he breaking a successful team? Ben Davis has impressed me since being linked with Fury. Fury has installed Sugar Hill-Steward as his new trainer. Sugar’s uncle is the late, great trainer Emanual Steward. Emanual took Lennox Lewis and Wladimir Klitschko under his tutelage and taught them how to use their height, length, and skills against other opponents. Maybe Tyson Fury, being a tall fighter, is looking for this level of help?

In his two fights, Deontay Wilder has looked scary dominant. In his first fight of the year, Wilder smashed the ex-Olympian and good fighter, Dominic Breazeale, with ease in the first round. This is my choice for knockout of the year.

In his only fight of the year against quality but aging contender, Luis Ortiz, Wilder was heavily criticized. Deontay lost every round before he smashed Ortiz to defeat in another highlight-reel knockout. Personally, I didn’t see Deontay being in danger of losing, even if he was not landing enough to win any of the rounds. I contest that Deontay has so much confidence in his ability to end a fight at any point in a fight, that he was stalking Ortiz without worry. Wilder knew that at some point Ortiz would present him with enough of a target that he’d knock the challenger cold. He did just that.

It’s my hypothesis that Deontay Wilder is at the zenith of his career and at no point do I feel his swagger is fake bravado. I used to surmise that Deontay was panicking in the ring. He seemed too frenetic and ungainly. However, I suggest that’s just his boxing style. That’s how his body works. Does Deontay have solid boxing skills? No, Deontay does not have good skills. Yet he’s incredibly awkward and this makes it difficult for you to time punches against him and can leave you open to his power shots. Deontay has fairly slow feet, yet his arms are long and his hands are fast. It is hard to safely and securely move out of the range of the scary punching power of Deontay. Fury does have a few inches of reach over Wilder, but nothing significant. One thing we can never take away from Wilder is his punch power, as stated earlier it’s unrivaled in the history of the sport. You make one mistake and it will be the only mistake you can take. I feel the two fights Wilder has had this year only helped build Deontay’s confidence and ring generalship.

On the other hand, Tyson Fury is fast, awkward and VERY big. At 6ft 9inches, he’s a few inches taller than Wilder. Tyson may have skinny legs, but he has incredible footwork for such a big person. Tyson also proved in the last fight, he does have the power to trouble Wilder. Tyson, for much of the fight, was able to absorb Wilder’s power without much trouble. Fury also managed to get into the head of Wilder and played with him. I see Tyson Fury trying to move around the ring, he’ll use his footwork to keep the fight at the distance he prefers. Fury will use his jab to upset the ungainly rhythm of Wilder, keeping Wilder off balance so he is unable to set his feet to generate his bombs. Being so much heavier than Wilder, I also see Tyson wrestling and leaning all over the lighterman. I do worry that Tyson Fury will box with his hands low again. Also, will Tyson be able to maintain a safe punching distance for the whole 12 rounds? I suggest Deontay Wilder is a supremely confident fighter, it’s evident in the way he speaks and in his in-ring performance. Once someone dents Deontay in the ring, this confidence will leach out of him. I do not see Tyson Fury being able to do that to Wilder.

I see a disjointed first few rounds with Tyson Fury moving and moving and Wilder stalking. I see Wilder walking after Fury with supreme confidence, and that at some point he will gain access to Fury’s chin. Fury may have escaped further punishment after being dropped in the first fight, but this time I predict the supremely confident Wilder will drop Fury later in the fight. However, unlike the first fight, I don’t see Fury being able to survive what will be a maniacal onslaught from the explosive Deontay Wilder.

My Prediction: Deontary Wilder comes back from being behind on points and wins via late-round knockout.